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How many copies did Fallout: New Vegas sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 16.6M–26.9M
$45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.2M before Steam's cut
from 262k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fallout: New Vegas and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fallout: New Vegas's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.2M–7.0M
best case 31.8M (Dying Light)
Games like Fallout: New Vegas

A typical game among these

≈ 5.2M–7.0M copies

≈ $75.3M–$136.7M after Steam's cut

from ~141k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Dying Light at ≈ 24.2M–39.3M copies, ≈ $166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 72k reviews in their first month; the range was 25k to 327k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (8 of 8) and Post-apocalyptic (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Post-apocalyptic + Survival + Zombies; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free		 Free
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAdventure
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut		 $19.99
429k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.2M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$123.1M–$331.0M after Steam's cut $223.8M–$509.2M before Steam's cut		 $44.99
401k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Project Zomboid
2013
Est. copies
≈ 30.5M–49.6M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$209.9M–$564.4M after Steam's cut $381.6M–$868.2M before Steam's cut		 $24.99
483k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition
2022
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$90.1M–$242.1M after Steam's cut $163.7M–$372.5M before Steam's cut		 $59.99
220k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldCo-op
NieR:Automata™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$58.2M–$156.5M after Steam's cut $105.8M–$240.7M before Steam's cut		 $39.99
154k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackStory Rich
Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut $302.5M–$688.3M before Steam's cut		 $24.99
496k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
The Long Dark
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–6.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$97.0M before Steam's cut		 $19.99
124k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.