How much revenue did Muv-Luv Alternative make?

$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Muv-Luv Alternative sell?

Q: How many copies did Muv-Luv Alternative sell?

116k to 188k copies, based on its 4k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 116k–188k; $1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut; from 4k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Muv-Luv Alternative and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Muv-Luv Alternative's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 78k–123k

best case 206k (Sunrider: Mask of Arcadius)

Games like Muv-Luv Alternative

A typical game among these

≈ 78k–123k copies

≈ $1.1M–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Sunrider: Mask of Arcadius at ≈ 157k–255k copies.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Visual Novel (8 of 8) and Anime (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Anime + Visual Novel.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
ROBOTICS;NOTES ELITE 2020	Est. copies ≈ 18k–29k too small to compare SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $172k–$463k after Steam's cut $313k–$713k before Steam's cut	$34.99	722 reviews Very Positive	AdventureVisual Novel
Muv-Luv 2018	Est. copies ≈ 64k–104k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $525k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $955k–$2.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	2k reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelAnime
Baldr Sky 2019	Est. copies ≈ 47k–76k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $642k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut	$49.99	2k reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelMechs
Sunrider: Mask of Arcadius 2014	Est. copies ≈ 157k–255k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	3k reviews Very Positive	AnimeVisual Novel
Sunrider: Liberation Day - Captain's Edition 2016	Est. copies ≈ 34k–55k too small to compare SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $234k–$630k after Steam's cut $426k–$968k before Steam's cut	$24.99	819 reviews Very Positive	StrategyVisual Novel
New Gundam Breaker 2018	Est. copies ≈ 72k–118k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $996k–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.1M before Steam's cut	$49.99	2k reviews Mixed	MechsAction
Corona Blossom Vol.1 Gift From the Galaxy 2016	Est. copies ≈ 13k–21k too small to compare SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $35k–$95k after Steam's cut $64k–$146k before Steam's cut	$9.99	309 reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelAnime
Heaven Will Be Mine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 25k–40k too small to compare SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $101k–$272k after Steam's cut $184k–$418k before Steam's cut	$14.99	806 reviews Very Positive	IndieLGBTQ+