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How big is Sunrider: Mask of Arcadius?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 157k–255k
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sunrider: Mask of Arcadius and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sunrider: Mask of Arcadius's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.1M–4.6M
best case 10.3M (Doki Doki Literature Club!)
Games like Sunrider: Mask of Arcadius

A typical game among these

≈ 2.1M–4.6M copies

≈ $5.2M–$8.6M after Steam's cut

from ~66k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Doki Doki Literature Club! at ≈ 7.9M–12.8M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (6 of 8) and Mature (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Emily is Away
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
32k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayStory Rich
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Everlasting Summer
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
78k reviews
Very Positive
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
HuniePop
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
NudityMature
Helltaker
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Free to PlayCute
Crush Crush
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
29k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity

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