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How many copies did Just Cause 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3.3M–5.3M
$13.4M–$36.1M after Steam's cut $24.4M–$55.6M before Steam's cut
from 52k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Just Cause 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Just Cause 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8.9M–35.0M
best case 133.2M (Grand Theft Auto V Legacy)
Games like Just Cause 2

A typical game among these

≈ 8.9M–35.0M copies

≈ $129.6M–$210.2M after Steam's cut

from ~308k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto V Legacy at ≈ 101.5M–164.9M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (8 of 8) and Automobile Sim (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Crime.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
204k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy
2015
Est. copies
≈ 101.5M–164.9M
6.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.1M reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
429k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Mount & Blade: Warband
2010
Est. copies
≈ 10.9M–17.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$59.8M–$160.9M after Steam's cut $108.8M–$247.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
172k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MedievalRPG
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord
2022
Est. copies
≈ 7.4M–12.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$101.7M–$273.3M after Steam's cut $184.8M–$420.5M before Steam's cut
$49.99
298k reviews
Very Positive
MedievalStrategy
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$75.1M after Steam's cut $50.8M–$115.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
205k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
2011
Est. copies
≈ 20.1M–32.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.9M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
318k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.8M–71.2M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
898k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.