How much revenue did Cartonfall make?

$8k–$23k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Cartonfall sell?

Q: How many copies did Cartonfall sell?

4k to 6k copies, based on its 133 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4k–6k; $8k–$23k after Steam's cut $15k–$35k before Steam's cut; from 133 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cartonfall and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cartonfall's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–7.3M

best case 27.0M (BeamNG.drive)

Games like Cartonfall

A typical game among these

≈ 1.8M–7.3M copies

≈ $19.2M–$145.6M after Steam's cut

from ~70k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: BeamNG.drive at ≈ 20.5M–33.4M copies, ≈ $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Physics (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation + Driving, priced around $25.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Hand Simulator: Horror 2020	Est. copies ≈ 22k–36k too small to compare SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $18k–$49k after Steam's cut $33k–$75k before Steam's cut	$2.99	893 reviews Mixed	SimulationMultiplayer
Kerbal Space Program 2015	Est. copies ≈ 7.2M–11.7M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	147k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SpaceSimulation
BeamNG.drive 2015	Est. copies ≈ 20.5M–33.4M 6.0x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	421k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationDriving
Goat Simulator 2014	Est. copies ≈ 3.9M–6.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $10.8M–$29.1M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.7M before Steam's cut	$9.99	70k reviews Very Positive	SimulationFunny
Wreckfest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.4M–$28.0M after Steam's cut $19.0M–$43.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	42k reviews Very Positive	RacingDestruction
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	88k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerPhysics
Freddy Fazbear's Pizzeria Simulator 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	33k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayHorror
MudRunner 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.4M–$22.5M after Steam's cut $15.2M–$34.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	44k reviews Very Positive	OffroadSimulation