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How many copies did Hypnospace Outlaw sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 160k–261k
$882k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hypnospace Outlaw and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hypnospace Outlaw's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–33k
best case 390k (Pool 2D - Poolians)
Games like Hypnospace Outlaw

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–33k copies

≈ $31k–$168k after Steam's cut

from ~338 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Pool 2D - Poolians at ≈ 297k–483k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 226 reviews in their first month; the range was 14 to 459.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Sports (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Pool + Simulation.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cricket 22
2021
Est. copies
≈ 44k–71k
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$539k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $980k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationSports
PBA Pro Bowling 2021
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$11k–$30k after Steam's cut $20k–$46k before Steam's cut
$14.99
109 reviews
Very Positive
SportsSimulation
PBA Pro Bowling
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5k–9k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$22k–$60k after Steam's cut $41k–$92k before Steam's cut
$14.99
188 reviews
Mostly Positive
SportsSimulation
Pool 2D - Poolians
2019
Est. copies
≈ 297k–483k
31x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
10k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayPool
Bocce Revolution
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
$4.99
30 reviews
Positive
PBA Pro Bowling 2023
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$22k–$60k after Steam's cut $41k–$93k before Steam's cut
$29.99
110 reviews
Mixed
SimulationSports
Premium Bowling
2019
Est. copies
≈ 14k–23k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$77k–$208k after Steam's cut $140k–$320k before Steam's cut
$19.99
488 reviews
Very Positive
SportsSimulation
All-In-One Sports VR
2023
Est. copies
≈ 19k–31k
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$105k–$283k after Steam's cut $191k–$435k before Steam's cut
$19.99
771 reviews
Very Positive

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