How much revenue did Noel the Mortal Fate Complete Edition make?

$431k–$1.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Noel the Mortal Fate Complete Edition sell?

Q: How many copies did Noel the Mortal Fate Complete Edition sell?

104k to 170k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 104k–170k; $431k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $783k–$1.8M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Noel the Mortal Fate Complete Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Noel the Mortal Fate Complete Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 341k–676k

best case 2.9M (OMORI)

Games like Noel the Mortal Fate Complete Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 341k–676k copies

≈ $1.2M–$3.7M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: OMORI at ≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies, ≈ $12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Anime (6 of 8) and RPGMaker (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Story Rich, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Psychological Horror + Multiple Endings + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Confess My Love 2017	Est. copies ≈ 168k–273k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue Free	Free	5k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayAnime
Tales of the Black Forest 2019	Est. copies ≈ 447k–726k 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $491k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $892k–$2.0M before Steam's cut	$3.99	16k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGRPGMaker
OMORI 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M 10x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	89k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Story Rich
Mad Father 2016	Est. copies ≈ 283k–461k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $779k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	7k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGMakerHorror
Eternal Senia 2015	Est. copies ≈ 589k–957k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	12k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AnimeFree to Play
Material Girl 2017	Est. copies ≈ 304k–495k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	9k reviews Very Positive	Sexual ContentNudity
King Exit 2017	Est. copies ≈ 236k–383k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	7k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Sexual ContentNudity
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky 2014	Est. copies ≈ 583k–947k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.2M–$8.6M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	10k reviews Very Positive	JRPG Story Rich