How much revenue did Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk make?

$157k–$423k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk sell?

Q: How many copies did Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk sell?

19k to 31k copies, based on its 663 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 19k–31k; $157k–$423k after Steam's cut $286k–$651k before Steam's cut; from 663 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5k–22k

best case 105k (Hakuoki: Kyoto Winds)

Games like Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk

A typical game among these

≈ 5k–22k copies

≈ $22k–$364k after Steam's cut

from ~162 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Hakuoki: Kyoto Winds at ≈ 80k–131k copies, ≈ $221k–$594k after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Visual Novel (8 of 8) and Anime (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Otome + Visual Novel, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Hakuoki: Kyoto Winds 2017	Est. copies ≈ 80k–131k 14x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $221k–$594k after Steam's cut $401k–$913k before Steam's cut	$9.99	2k reviews Very Positive	OtomeVisual Novel
Nightshade/百花百狼 2017	Est. copies ≈ 28k–45k 5.0x vs typical SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $265k–$714k after Steam's cut $483k–$1.1M before Steam's cut	$34.99	802 reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	OtomeFemale Protagonist
Dead Wishes 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2k–4k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $6k–$17k after Steam's cut $11k–$26k before Steam's cut	$9.99	78 reviews Very Positive	ViolentGore
Crossroad 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4k–7k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $11k–$29k after Steam's cut $20k–$44k before Steam's cut	$8.99	143 reviews Mostly Positive	CasualIndie
Winter Worm, Summer Grass 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2k–4k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue Free	Free	79 reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayNudity
Steam Prison 2019	Est. copies ≈ 13k–21k 2.8x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $127k–$341k after Steam's cut $231k–$525k before Steam's cut	$34.99	458 reviews Very Positive	OtomeFemale Protagonist
London Detective Mysteria 2019	Est. copies ≈ 4k–6k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue Free	Free	135 reviews Very Positive	AdventureCasual
クラブ・スーサイド 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4k–7k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $15k–$40k after Steam's cut $27k–$61k before Steam's cut	$11.99	181 reviews Very Positive	AdventureVisual Novel