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How big is Winter Worm, Summer Grass?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 2k–4k
from 79 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Winter Worm, Summer Grass and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Winter Worm, Summer Grass's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.2M–7.4M
best case 32.0M (Cyberpunk 2077)
Games like Winter Worm, Summer Grass

A typical game among these

≈ 3.2M–7.4M copies

≈ $31.2M–$121.5M after Steam's cut

from ~159k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Gore (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.4M–39.6M copies, ≈ $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 42k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 326k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Gore (3 of 8) and Horror (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cyberpunk + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Resident Evil Village
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
155k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Borderlands 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$89.5M–$240.7M after Steam's cut $162.8M–$370.4M before Steam's cut
$79.99
164k reviews
Very Positive
RPGLooter Shooter
A Way Out
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.1M–$56.7M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
103k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpCo-op
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Devil May Cry 5
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.9M–8.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$40.6M–$109.2M after Steam's cut $73.9M–$168.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
171k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionHack and Slash
Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.4M–39.6M
6.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
983k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
Outlast 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.2M–$50.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
Blade and Sorcery
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.7M–$34.2M after Steam's cut $23.1M–$52.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
62k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRSwordplay

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