How much revenue did Nobunaga's Shadow make?

$834–$2k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Nobunaga's Shadow sell?

Q: How many copies did Nobunaga's Shadow sell?

608 to 988 copies, based on its 20 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 608–988; $834–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$3k before Steam's cut; from 20 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nobunaga's Shadow and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nobunaga's Shadow's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7k–20k

best case 27k (The Use of Life)

Games like Nobunaga's Shadow

A typical game among these

≈ 7k–20k copies

≈ $44k–$128k after Steam's cut

from ~321 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Use of Life at ≈ 21k–34k copies, ≈ $113k–$305k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 85 reviews in their first month; the range was 6 to 611.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share JRPG (5 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Choose Your Own Adventure + CRPG, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Long Gone Days 2023	Est. copies ≈ 14k–23k 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $95k–$257k after Steam's cut $174k–$395k before Steam's cut	$24.99	560 reviews Very Positive	PoliticalStory Rich
Lawless Lands 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $11k–$28k after Steam's cut $19k–$44k before Steam's cut	$12.99	119 reviews Very Positive	Choose Your Own AdventureDungeons & Dragons
유어 블라이트 2022	Est. copies ≈ 8k–13k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $44k–$118k after Steam's cut $80k–$181k before Steam's cut	$19.99	321 reviews Very Positive	RPGCRPG
The Use of Life 2025	Est. copies ≈ 21k–34k 2.6x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $113k–$305k after Steam's cut $206k–$469k before Steam's cut	$19.99	832 reviews Very Positive	Choose Your Own AdventureCRPG
City of Chains 2015	Est. copies ≈ 17k–27k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $42k–$112k after Steam's cut $75k–$172k before Steam's cut	$8.99	344 reviews Mostly Positive	IndieRPG
Introvert Quest 2017	Est. copies ≈ 5k–8k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $4k–$11k after Steam's cut $8k–$17k before Steam's cut	$2.99	147 reviews Mostly Positive	MysteryAdventure
Dyztopia: Post-Human RPG 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut	$4.99	48 reviews Positive	RPGParty-Based RPG
Star Knightess Aura 2025	Est. copies ≈ 5k–9k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $37k–$99k after Steam's cut $67k–$152k before Steam's cut	$24.99	216 reviews Very Positive	Dark FantasySexual Content