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How many copies did Lawless Lands sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$11k–$28k after Steam's cut $19k–$44k before Steam's cut
from 119 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lawless Lands and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lawless Lands's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 489k–996k
best case 7.3M (The Elder Scrolls® Online)
Games like Lawless Lands

A typical game among these

≈ 489k–996k copies

≈ $2.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut

from ~15k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Character Customization (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Elder Scrolls® Online at ≈ 5.6M–9.0M copies, ≈ $30.6M–$82.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the range was 922 to 14k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Character Customization (3 of 8) and Choices Matter (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Life Sim + Character Customization, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Exploration + Adventure + Fantasy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.7x vs typical
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11x vs typical
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