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How many copies did Pummel Party sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
$7.3M–$19.6M after Steam's cut $13.2M–$30.1M before Steam's cut
from 58k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Pummel Party and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Pummel Party's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 69k–1.5M
best case 2.9M (Ultimate Chicken Horse)
Games like Pummel Party

A typical game among these

≈ 69k–1.5M copies

≈ $642k–$5.7M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (2 of 4), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Ultimate Chicken Horse at ≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies, ≈ $9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (2 of 4) and Simulation (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Party + Platformer, priced around $15.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PICO PARK
2021
Est. copies
≈ 744k–1.2M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$4.99
30k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerOnline Co-Op
Tools Up!
2019
Est. copies
≈ 32k–53k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$178k–$479k after Steam's cut $324k–$737k before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
CasualIndie
Ultimate Chicken Horse
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut $16.8M–$38.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
54k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerParty
Moving Out
2020
Est. copies
≈ 59k–96k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$405k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $736k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
CasualIndie

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.