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How many copies did Rebel Galaxy Outlaw sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 30k–48k
$245k–$659k after Steam's cut $446k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rebel Galaxy Outlaw and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rebel Galaxy Outlaw's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5k–32k
best case 5.7M (Starfield)
Games like Rebel Galaxy Outlaw

A typical game among these

≈ 5k–32k copies

≈ $31k–$71k after Steam's cut

from ~231 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Starfield at ≈ 4.4M–7.1M copies, ≈ $59.8M–$160.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 94 to 93k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (6 of 8) and Space (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Open World, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + First-Person + Character Customization; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Naev
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8k–13k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
231 reviews
Very Positive
SpaceExploration
The Last Hope
2016
Est. copies
≈ 41k–67k
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$23k–$61k after Steam's cut $41k–$93k before Steam's cut
$1.99
989 reviews
Mostly Negative
ExplorationAction Roguelike
Subdivision Infinity DX
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$12k–$33k after Steam's cut $22k–$51k before Steam's cut
$14.99
104 reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionIndie
Project Asteroids
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
132 reviews
Mixed
SurvivalCrafting
Starfield
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
760x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$59.8M–$160.9M after Steam's cut $108.8M–$247.5M before Steam's cut
$49.99
175k reviews
Mixed
SpaceSingleplayer
Starcom: Unknown Space
2024
Est. copies
≈ 112k–181k
19x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$767k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceExploration
Precursors
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$17k–$45k after Steam's cut $30k–$69k before Steam's cut
$14.99
117 reviews
Mixed
ExplorationHero Shooter
Landinar: Into the Void
2019
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$39k–$104k after Steam's cut $70k–$160k before Steam's cut
$19.99
244 reviews
Mixed
AdventureAction

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