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How many copies did Transient: Extended Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–14k
$48k–$129k after Steam's cut $87k–$199k before Steam's cut
from 352 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Transient: Extended Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Transient: Extended Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 41k–963k
best case 1.1M (SIGNALIS)
Games like Transient: Extended Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 41k–963k copies

≈ $378k–$2.9M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Lovecraftian (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: SIGNALIS at ≈ 862k–1.4M copies, ≈ $4.7M–$12.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 777 reviews in their first month; the range was 14 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Lovecraftian (3 of 8) and Action RPG (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival Horror + Psychological Horror, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
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5.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Cult ClassicCombat Racing
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StrategyRPG
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2022
Est. copies
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13x vs typical
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ICEY
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≈ 1.2M–1.9M
11x vs typical
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ActionFemale Protagonist
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Early AccessPost-apocalyptic
Magrunner: Dark Pulse
2013
Est. copies
≈ 72k–117k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$395k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $718k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
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PuzzleLovecraftian
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Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
SteamSpy under 20k
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Morbid: The Seven Acolytes
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≈ 38k–61k
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Mostly Positive
Souls-likeAction

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