How much revenue did Halo: The Master Chief Collection make?

$83.3M–$223.9M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Halo: The Master Chief Collection sell?

Q: How many copies did Halo: The Master Chief Collection sell?

7.6M to 12.3M copies, based on its 263k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 7.6M–12.3M; $83.3M–$223.9M after Steam's cut $151.4M–$344.5M before Steam's cut; from 263k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Halo: The Master Chief Collection and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Halo: The Master Chief Collection's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.0M–4.5M

best case 23.2M (Half-Life 2)

Games like Halo: The Master Chief Collection

A typical game among these

≈ 4.0M–4.5M copies

≈ $22.5M–$30.9M after Steam's cut

from ~54k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Half-Life 2 at ≈ 17.7M–28.8M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (7 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Gore, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 1998 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
DOOM 2016	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M 4.1x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	222k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSGore
Half-Life 1998	Est. copies ≈ 10.4M–16.9M 3.0x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	164k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSClassic
Half-Life 2 2004	Est. copies ≈ 17.7M–28.8M 5.2x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	280k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSAction
Portal 2007	Est. copies ≈ 12.6M–20.5M 3.7x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	199k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Black Mesa 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.8M 2.7x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $19.8M–$53.2M after Steam's cut $35.9M–$81.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	145k reviews Very Positive	FPSRemake
BioShock™ Remastered 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $14.9M–$40.1M after Steam's cut $27.1M–$61.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	65k reviews Very Positive	FPS Story Rich
STAR WARS™ Battlefront II (Classic, 2005) 2009	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $9.4M–$25.4M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$39.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	54k reviews Very Positive	ActionMultiplayer
Call of Duty: World at War 2008	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $18.6M–$49.9M after Steam's cut $33.7M–$76.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	53k reviews Very Positive	ZombiesWorld War II