How much revenue did Black Mesa make?

$19.8M–$53.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Black Mesa sell?

Q: How many copies did Black Mesa sell?

3.6M to 5.8M copies, based on its 145k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 3.6M–5.8M; $19.8M–$53.2M after Steam's cut $35.9M–$81.8M before Steam's cut; from 145k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Black Mesa and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Black Mesa's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–7.1M

best case 12.1M (DOOM)

Games like Black Mesa

A typical game among these

≈ 1.7M–7.1M copies

≈ $19.7M–$63.7M after Steam's cut

from ~48k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: DOOM at ≈ 9.2M–15.0M copies, ≈ $50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share First-Person (7 of 8) and FPS (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Gore, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2010 to 2016, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 52 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
BioShock™ 2 Remastered 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $6.9M–$18.7M after Steam's cut $12.6M–$28.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	30k reviews Mostly Positive	FPSAction
BioShock™ Remastered 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $14.9M–$40.1M after Steam's cut $27.1M–$61.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	65k reviews Very Positive	FPS Story Rich
Metro: Last Light Redux 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.6M–7.5M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $25.3M–$67.9M after Steam's cut $45.9M–$104.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	82k reviews Very Positive	Post-apocalypticFPS
Metro 2033 Redux 2014	Est. copies ≈ 8.0M–12.9M 3.0x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $43.8M–$117.8M after Steam's cut $79.6M–$181.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	142k reviews Very Positive	Post-apocalypticFPS
Thief 2014	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.4M–$19.9M after Steam's cut $13.5M–$30.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	24k reviews Mostly Positive	StealthAction
Shadow Warrior 2013	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $13.9M–$37.5M after Steam's cut $25.4M–$57.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	27k reviews Very Positive	ActionFPS
Need For Speed: Hot Pursuit 2010	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	20k reviews Very Positive	RacingCombat Racing
DOOM 2016	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M 4.6x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	222k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FPSGore