How much revenue did Shadow Warrior make?

$13.9M–$37.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Shadow Warrior sell?

Q: How many copies did Shadow Warrior sell?

1.7M to 2.7M copies, based on its 27k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.7M–2.7M; $13.9M–$37.5M after Steam's cut $25.4M–$57.7M before Steam's cut; from 27k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shadow Warrior and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Warrior's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–4.6M

best case 12.2M (Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition)

Games like Shadow Warrior

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–4.6M copies

≈ $20.9M–$51.5M after Steam's cut

from ~50k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Gore (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition at ≈ 9.3M–15.1M copies, ≈ $101.9M–$273.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 10k to 21k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Gore (4 of 8) and Medieval (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Pirates, priced around $40.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
MORDHAU 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.3M–5.3M 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $26.9M–$72.3M after Steam's cut $48.9M–$111.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	113k reviews Mostly Positive	MedievalMultiplayer
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 9.3M–15.1M 7.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $101.9M–$273.9M after Steam's cut $185.2M–$421.4M before Steam's cut	$39.99	374k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerOpen World
Chivalry 2 2022	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $16.2M–$43.4M after Steam's cut $29.4M–$66.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	59k reviews Mostly Positive	SwordplayMedieval
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare 2012	Est. copies ≈ 4.1M–6.7M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $28.2M–$75.9M after Steam's cut $51.3M–$116.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	65k reviews Very Positive	MedievalMultiplayer
Shadow Warrior 2 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–1.9M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.7M–$26.1M after Steam's cut $17.6M–$40.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	28k reviews Very Positive	ActionGore
Conqueror's Blade 2019	Est. copies ≈ 859k–1.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	30k reviews Mostly Positive	MedievalTactical
Bright Memory: Infinite 2021	Est. copies ≈ 990k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.4M–$14.6M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	40k reviews Very Positive	ActionFemale Protagonist
Blackwake 2020	Est. copies ≈ 646k–1.0M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	26k reviews Very Positive	PiratesMultiplayer