How many copies did Blackwake sell?

646k to 1.0M copies, based on its 26k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Blackwake make?

Blackwake is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Blackwake?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 646k–1.0M; from 26k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Blackwake and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Blackwake's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 238k–493k

best case 2.6M (Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™)

Games like Blackwake

A typical game among these

≈ 238k–493k copies

≈ $1.7M–$3.4M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ at ≈ 1.9M–3.2M copies, ≈ $21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Pirates (8 of 8) and Naval Combat (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Pirates + Open World, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Open World + Adventure + Assassin; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.2M 13x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut $39.0M–$88.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	79k reviews Very Positive	PiratesOpen World
Maelstrom 2019	Est. copies ≈ 74k–121k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	3k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayPirates
Naval Action 2019	Est. copies ≈ 428k–695k 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	15k reviews Mixed	SailingNaval Combat
The Pirate: Caribbean Hunt 2016	Est. copies ≈ 194k–315k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	5k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayNaval Combat
Pixel Piracy 2014	Est. copies ≈ 412k–669k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	7k reviews Mixed	Action RoguelikeSandbox
Blazing Sails 2023	Est. copies ≈ 267k–433k 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut	$14.99	11k reviews Very Positive	Co-opNaval Combat
ATLAS 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M 7.1x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.6M–$44.5M before Steam's cut	$29.99	43k reviews Mixed	SurvivalOpen World
Windward 2015	Est. copies ≈ 177k–288k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $487k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $886k–$2.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	4k reviews Mostly Positive	PiratesNaval Combat