How much revenue did The Sapling make?

$286k–$768k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Sapling sell?

Q: How many copies did The Sapling sell?

58k to 94k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 58k–94k; $286k–$768k after Steam's cut $520k–$1.2M before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Sapling and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Sapling's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–2.2M

best case 9.4M (Kerbal Space Program)

Games like The Sapling

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–2.2M copies

≈ $16.4M–$28.2M after Steam's cut

from ~53k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Kerbal Space Program at ≈ 7.2M–11.7M copies, ≈ $79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 34k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 38k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Sandbox (5 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Space + Simulation, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Space Sim + Science + Moddable; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2008 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Universe Sandbox 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $13.0M–$35.0M after Steam's cut $23.6M–$53.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	32k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxSpace
Besiege 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationSandbox
Kerbal Space Program 2015	Est. copies ≈ 7.2M–11.7M 2.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	147k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SpaceSimulation
SPORE™ 2008	Est. copies ≈ 4.6M–7.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut $46.0M–$104.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	73k reviews Very Positive	God GameOpen World
Abiotic Factor 2025	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $14.2M–$38.2M after Steam's cut $25.8M–$58.7M before Steam's cut	$34.99	59k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SurvivalOnline Co-Op
Timberborn 2026	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.0M–$26.9M after Steam's cut $18.2M–$41.4M before Steam's cut	$34.99	42k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	City BuilderVoxel
Trailmakers 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	39k reviews Very Positive	SpaceAction
ICARUS 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $16.4M–$44.2M after Steam's cut $29.9M–$68.0M before Steam's cut	$34.99	69k reviews Mostly Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft