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How many copies did Hitchhiker - A Mystery Game sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–9k
$23k–$63k after Steam's cut $42k–$96k before Steam's cut
from 228 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hitchhiker - A Mystery Game and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hitchhiker - A Mystery Game's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 32.7M–39.2M
best case 820.1M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like Hitchhiker - A Mystery Game

A typical game among these

≈ 32.7M–39.2M copies

≈ $211.6M–$741.4M after Steam's cut

from ~1.0M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 76k reviews in their first month; the range was 40k to 326k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (5 of 8) and FPS (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Crime. The breakout hits carry Action + Crime + Automobile Sim; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.4M–39.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
983k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy
2015
Est. copies
≈ 101.5M–164.9M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.1M reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Phasmophobia
2020
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–33.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut $208.6M–$474.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
842k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Red Dead Redemption 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut $797.0M–$1813.3M before Steam's cut
$59.99
923k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldStory Rich
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 80.0M–130.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxModdable
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 624.8M–1015.3M
9.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.9M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities

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