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How many copies did Tetris® Effect: Connected sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 224k–364k
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tetris® Effect: Connected and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tetris® Effect: Connected's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.7M–8.0M
best case 12.2M (Hogwarts Legacy)
Games like Tetris® Effect: Connected

A typical game among these

≈ 3.7M–8.0M copies

≈ $21.0M–$71.0M after Steam's cut

from ~88k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Story Rich (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Hogwarts Legacy at ≈ 9.3M–15.1M copies, ≈ $153.2M–$412.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (4 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Magic + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.4M–$44.1M after Steam's cut $29.8M–$67.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
72k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AtmosphericGreat Soundtrack
Plants vs. Zombies GOTY Edition
2009
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.6M–$36.5M after Steam's cut $24.7M–$56.1M before Steam's cut
$4.99
156k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseZombies
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production
Ultimate Chicken Horse
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut $16.8M–$38.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
54k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerParty
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.6M–$149.5M after Steam's cut $101.1M–$230.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
176k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureSouls-like
Hogwarts Legacy
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$153.2M–$412.0M after Steam's cut $278.6M–$633.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
375k reviews
Very Positive
MagicOpen World
SOMA
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.4M after Steam's cut $38.8M–$88.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Ori and the Blind Forest
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
60k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackAtmospheric

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