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How many copies did Smile For Me sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 86k–140k
$308k–$827k after Steam's cut $559k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Smile For Me and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Smile For Me's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.6M–5.5M
best case 38.8M (Portal 2)
Games like Smile For Me

A typical game among these

≈ 4.6M–5.5M copies

≈ $26.9M–$44.5M after Steam's cut

from ~143k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 64k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (7 of 8) and Horror (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + Puzzle, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Platformer + Dark Humor + Funny; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PePiBo: Peregrino Pinata Bowling
2021
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$163–$440 after Steam's cut $296–$677 before Steam's cut
$7.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
CasualSports
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer
Poppy Playtime
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
143k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorFree to Play
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.1M–$64.9M after Steam's cut $43.9M–$99.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Buckshot Roulette
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$2.99
127k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerDark
Inscryption
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.3M–$54.6M after Steam's cut $36.9M–$84.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Card BattlerCard Game
MiSide
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.6M–$39.2M after Steam's cut $26.5M–$60.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
143k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

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