How much revenue did Mafia: Definitive Edition make?

$30.4M–$81.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Mafia: Definitive Edition sell?

Q: How many copies did Mafia: Definitive Edition sell?

2.8M to 4.5M copies, based on its 111k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2.8M–4.5M; $30.4M–$81.7M after Steam's cut $55.2M–$125.7M before Steam's cut; from 111k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mafia: Definitive Edition and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Mafia: Definitive Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.3M–4.0M

best case 5.6M (Watch_Dogs® 2)

Games like Mafia: Definitive Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 2.3M–4.0M copies

≈ $16.9M–$66.7M after Steam's cut

from ~64k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Watch_Dogs® 2 at ≈ 4.3M–7.0M copies, ≈ $59.1M–$158.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (2 of 3) and Third Person (2 of 3).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Hacking, priced around $50.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Watch_Dogs® 2 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–7.0M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $59.1M–$158.9M after Steam's cut $107.5M–$244.4M before Steam's cut	$49.99	103k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldHacking
UNO 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	54k reviews Mostly Positive	Card GameMultiplayer
Mafia III: Definitive Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $13.2M–$35.5M after Steam's cut $24.0M–$54.6M before Steam's cut	$29.99	64k reviews Mixed	CrimeOpen World