How much revenue did Mafia III: Definitive Edition make?

$13.2M–$35.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Mafia III: Definitive Edition sell?

Q: How many copies did Mafia III: Definitive Edition sell?

1.6M to 2.6M copies, based on its 64k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.6M–2.6M; $13.2M–$35.5M after Steam's cut $24.0M–$54.6M before Steam's cut; from 64k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mafia III: Definitive Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mafia III: Definitive Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.6M–6.8M

best case 133.2M (Grand Theft Auto V Legacy)

Games like Mafia III: Definitive Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 4.6M–6.8M copies

≈ $54.9M–$87.2M after Steam's cut

from ~111k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto V Legacy at ≈ 101.5M–164.9M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 58k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 153k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (8 of 8) and Crime (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Crime. The breakout hits carry Mature + First-Person + Automobile Sim; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2008 to 2025, and 1 of the 7 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.2M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	204k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Schedule I 2025	Est. copies ≈ 7.9M–12.8M 2.9x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $43.4M–$116.6M after Steam's cut $78.8M–$179.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	318k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Simulation Co-op
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas 2008	Est. copies ≈ 5.3M–8.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	83k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Watch_Dogs® 2 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–7.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $59.1M–$158.9M after Steam's cut $107.5M–$244.4M before Steam's cut	$49.99	103k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldHacking
Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.8M–4.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $30.4M–$81.7M after Steam's cut $55.2M–$125.7M before Steam's cut	$39.99	111k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldCrime
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy 2015	Est. copies ≈ 101.5M–164.9M 19x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.1M reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $27.9M–$75.1M after Steam's cut $50.8M–$115.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	205k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Yakuza 0 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.4M–3.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	78k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichAction