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How many copies did Alt-Frequencies sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 8k–13k
from 288 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Alt-Frequencies and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Alt-Frequencies's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 388k–668k
best case 1.1M (Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk)
Games like Alt-Frequencies

A typical game among these

≈ 388k–668k copies

≈ $1.0M–$2.6M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk at ≈ 853k–1.4M copies, ≈ $349k–$939k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 392 reviews in their first month; the range was 5 to 855.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Interactive Fiction (7 of 8) and Visual Novel (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Psychological Horror, priced around $1.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Visual NovelChoose Your Own Adventure
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InvestigationTyping
Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk
2020
Est. copies
≈ 853k–1.4M
2.9x vs typical
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Overwhelmingly Positive
Coffee Talk
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ConversationPixel Graphics
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DetectiveCrime
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too small to compare
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too small to compare
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Adventures in Morality: An Interactive Case Study
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StrategyExperimental

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