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How big is Dota Underlords?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
from 91k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dota Underlords and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dota Underlords's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 50k–261k
best case 2.5M (Minion Masters)
Games like Dota Underlords

A typical game among these

≈ 50k–261k copies

≈ $95k after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Auto Battler (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Minion Masters at ≈ 1.9M–3.1M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 737 reviews in their first month; the range was 323 to 5k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Auto Battler (4 of 8) and Card Battler (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics. The breakout hits carry PvE + Trading Card Game + Stylized; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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