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How many copies did Tamarin sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$26k–$70k after Steam's cut $47k–$107k before Steam's cut
from 127 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tamarin and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tamarin's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 565k–1.9M
best case 38.8M (Portal 2)
Games like Tamarin

A typical game among these

≈ 565k–1.9M copies

≈ $5.2M–$14.0M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Portal 2 at ≈ 29.5M–48.0M copies, ≈ $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (6 of 8) and Action-Adventure (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + Puzzle, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Puzzle + Dark Humor + Story Rich; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
24x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Chained Together
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.1M before Steam's cut
$4.99
64k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAdventure
Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart
2023
Est. copies
≈ 451k–732k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.4M–$20.0M after Steam's cut $13.5M–$30.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Adventure3D Platformer
Psychonauts
2006
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.0M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerComedy
Sonic Frontiers
2022
Est. copies
≈ 709k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackOpen World
Mirror's Edge™
2009
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.8M after Steam's cut $24.9M–$56.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureParkour
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst
2020
Est. copies
≈ 411k–668k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
17k reviews
Mostly Positive
ParkourFemale Protagonist
Psychonauts 2
2021
Est. copies
≈ 360k–586k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
3D PlatformerStory Rich

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