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How many copies did Nebulas Lasso sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 29–47
$72–$192 after Steam's cut $130–$296 before Steam's cut
from 1 review (1 user reviews)
Only 1 review so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nebulas Lasso and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nebulas Lasso's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–317k
best case 1.7M (Besiege)
Games like Nebulas Lasso

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–317k copies

≈ $4k–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~831 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Besiege at ≈ 1.3M–2.1M copies, ≈ $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 337 reviews in their first month; the range was 26 to 31k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shoot 'Em Up (7 of 8) and Twin Stick Shooter (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Sandbox, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Beat Hazard
2010
Est. copies
≈ 471k–765k
9.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic-Based Procedural Generation
Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
64x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
Jet Lancer
2020
Est. copies
≈ 31k–50k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$128k–$344k after Steam's cut $232k–$529k before Steam's cut
$14.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
ActionIndie
Dead Estate
2021
Est. copies
≈ 165k–268k
8.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$681k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeTwin Stick Shooter
Cycle 28
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
$3.99
59 reviews
Very Positive
Bullet HellArcade
Furious Angels
2017
Est. copies
≈ 14k–23k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$19k–$52k after Steam's cut $35k–$80k before Steam's cut
$4.99
412 reviews
Very Positive
Bullet HellShoot 'Em Up
Super Mega Space Blaster Special
2019
Est. copies
≈ 634–1k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$173–$464 after Steam's cut $314–$714 before Steam's cut
$0.99
22 reviews
Positive
ActionCasual
Gravitators
2021
Est. copies
≈ 719–1k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
$9.99
29 reviews
Positive
Top-Down ShooterTwin Stick Shooter

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.