How much revenue did Lake make?

$807k–$2.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Lake sell?

Q: How many copies did Lake sell?

147k to 238k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 147k–238k; $807k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut; from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lake and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lake's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 480–27k

best case 196k (LOST EMBER)

Games like Lake

A typical game among these

≈ 480–27k copies

≈ $2k–$209k after Steam's cut

from ~39 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: LOST EMBER at ≈ 149k–243k copies, ≈ $1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 11 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 381.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Walking Simulator (6 of 8) and Cozy (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Exploration + Story Rich, priced around $30.
When they shipped: 5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
I'll be Brave, Tomorrow 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $4k–$12k after Steam's cut $8k–$18k before Steam's cut	$11.99	54 reviews Very Positive	SingleplayerNarrative
Shrommzzz: Mushroom Foraging 2023	Est. copies ≈ 372–605 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $817–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut	$7.99	15 reviews Positive	IndieCasual
Harold Halibut 2024	Est. copies ≈ 33k–54k 34x vs typical SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $320k–$860k after Steam's cut $581k–$1.3M before Steam's cut	$34.99	1k reviews Very Positive	Story RichCinematic
BattleCakes 2024	Est. copies ≈ 347–564 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut	$14.99	14 reviews Positive	Family FriendlyCozy
LOST EMBER 2019	Est. copies ≈ 149k–243k 133x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	5k reviews Very Positive	AtmosphericExploration
The Longest Road on Earth 2021	Est. copies ≈ 16k–26k 17x vs typical SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $44k–$119k after Steam's cut $81k–$184k before Steam's cut	$9.99	652 reviews Mostly Positive	CozyCasual
RINBO 2024	Est. copies ≈ 74–121 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $142–$385 after Steam's cut $259–$592 before Steam's cut	$6.99	3 reviews 3 user reviews	CozyAdventure
A Cat & His Boy 2024	Est. copies ≈ 595–967 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $980–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut	$5.99	24 reviews Positive	AdventureStory Rich