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How many copies did Harold Halibut sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 33k–54k
$320k–$860k after Steam's cut $581k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Harold Halibut and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Harold Halibut's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 459k–2.3M
best case 4.2M (INSIDE)
Games like Harold Halibut

A typical game among these

≈ 459k–2.3M copies

≈ $5.6M–$30.5M after Steam's cut

from ~24k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: INSIDE at ≈ 3.2M–5.2M copies, ≈ $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 722 to 11k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (6 of 8) and Cinematic (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 2.5D + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

House Party
2022
Est. copies
≈ 383k–623k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
NudityMature
The Evil Within
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.4M–$28.0M after Steam's cut $18.9M–$43.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Very Positive
Blair Witch
2019
Est. copies
≈ 237k–385k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
8k reviews
Mostly Positive
AdventureHorror
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.8M–$50.6M after Steam's cut $34.2M–$77.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
69k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichOpen World
Tell Me Why
2020
Est. copies
≈ 400k–650k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Hellblade II: Senua’s Saga
2024
Est. copies
≈ 251k–407k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.3M after Steam's cut $6.3M–$14.2M before Steam's cut
$49.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventurePsychological Horror
Quantum Break
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.2M–$38.3M after Steam's cut $25.9M–$58.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
ActionStory Rich

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