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How many copies did Stilt Fella sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 22k–36k
$78k–$211k after Steam's cut $143k–$324k before Steam's cut
from 885 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Stilt Fella and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Stilt Fella's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–4.3M
best case 99.7M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)
Games like Stilt Fella

A typical game among these

≈ 2.5M–4.3M copies

≈ $23.1M–$45.5M after Steam's cut

from ~88k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 76.0M–123.4M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 28k reviews in their first month; the range was 17k to 55k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Physics (5 of 8) and Sandbox (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical. The breakout hits carry FPS + PvP + Tactical; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
88k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerPhysics
Noita
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PhysicsRogue-like
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
18x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Besiege
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationSandbox
Rain World
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultAtmospheric
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut $38.3M–$87.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
154k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSimulation
Golf With Your Friends
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.9M–$69.5M after Steam's cut $47.0M–$107.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
76k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerCasual
Kerbal Space Program
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.2M–11.7M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SpaceSimulation

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