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How many copies did Murder by Numbers sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 42k–68k
$173k–$465k after Steam's cut $315k–$715k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Murder by Numbers and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Murder by Numbers's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 163k–407k
best case 581k (Sanfu)
Games like Murder by Numbers

A typical game among these

≈ 163k–407k copies

≈ $1.9M–$2.6M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sanfu at ≈ 443k–720k copies, ≈ $1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 771 to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (6 of 8) and Detective (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mystery + Drama, priced around $11.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.3x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.