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How many copies did Utawarerumono: Mask of Deception sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 34k–56k
$378k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $687k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Utawarerumono: Mask of Deception and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Utawarerumono: Mask of Deception's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–3.0M
best case 4.6M (Persona 5 Royal)
Games like Utawarerumono: Mask of Deception

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–3.0M copies

≈ $5.8M–$28.8M after Steam's cut

from ~62k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Persona 5 Royal at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (6 of 8) and Anime (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with JRPG + Story Rich, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.3x vs typical
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Story RichCard Game

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