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How many copies did Wizard with a Gun sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 99k–162k
$684k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Wizard with a Gun and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Wizard with a Gun's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 52.2M–111.1M
best case 133.2M (Grand Theft Auto V Legacy)
Games like Wizard with a Gun

A typical game among these

≈ 52.2M–111.1M copies

≈ $452.3M–$837.0M after Steam's cut

from ~1.1M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto V Legacy at ≈ 101.5M–164.9M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (5 of 8) and First-Person (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Crime.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Open World Survival CraftSandbox
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1.8x vs typical
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Open WorldAction
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Garry's Mod
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≈ 80.0M–130.1M
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≈ 26.6M–43.2M
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$59.99
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Open WorldStory Rich

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