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How many copies did NEKO ARENA sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 15k–25k
$8k–$22k after Steam's cut $15k–$34k before Steam's cut
from 608 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid NEKO ARENA and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including NEKO ARENA's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–8k
best case 48k (Hitler Waifu)
Games like NEKO ARENA

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–8k copies

≈ $2k–$7k after Steam's cut

from ~188 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Hitler Waifu at ≈ 37k–59k copies, ≈ $10k–$27k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 79 reviews in their first month; the range was 22 to 296.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (5 of 8) and Anime (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Arena Shooter, priced around $1. The breakout hits carry Adventure + Arena Shooter + Action; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Misfits
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Est. copies
≈ 10k–16k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
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Second Wave
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SteamSpy under 20k
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Idol VS Furries
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$1.99
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ActionCasual
Succubus With Guns
2021
Est. copies
≈ 6k–10k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
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Free
253 reviews
Mixed
Female ProtagonistAnime
Trianga's Project: Battle Splash 2.0
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$783–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$0.99
116 reviews
Very Positive
Arena ShooterHero Shooter
Hitler Waifu
2023
Est. copies
≈ 37k–59k
7.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$10k–$27k after Steam's cut $18k–$41k before Steam's cut
$0.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
CasualAdventure
The Last of Waifus
2020
Est. copies
≈ 36k–58k
7.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$20k–$53k after Steam's cut $36k–$81k before Steam's cut
$1.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionAnime
WAIFU IMPACT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$7k–$19k after Steam's cut $13k–$29k before Steam's cut
$5.99
171 reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentHentai

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.