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How many copies did SwarmZ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–19k
$16k–$44k after Steam's cut $30k–$67k before Steam's cut
from 411 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid SwarmZ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including SwarmZ's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–3.9M
best case 40.1M (Project Zomboid)
Games like SwarmZ

A typical game among these

≈ 2.2M–3.9M copies

≈ $18.0M–$23.7M after Steam's cut

from ~68k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Project Zomboid at ≈ 30.5M–49.6M copies, ≈ $209.9M–$564.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 32k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 327k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (7 of 8) and Zombies (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Open World, priced around $45. The breakout hits carry Open World Survival Craft + Survival + Post-apocalyptic; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DayZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 14.3M–23.2M
6.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$196.4M–$527.9M after Steam's cut $357.0M–$812.2M before Steam's cut
$49.99
470k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World
Plague Inc: Evolved
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.3M–$30.4M after Steam's cut $20.6M–$46.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
66k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Project Zomboid
2013
Est. copies
≈ 30.5M–49.6M
7.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$209.9M–$564.4M after Steam's cut $381.6M–$868.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
483k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Just Survive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
77k reviews
Mixed
ZombiesSurvival
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.3M–$38.6M after Steam's cut $26.1M–$59.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
70k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World
Miscreated
2018
Est. copies
≈ 960k–1.6M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$7.9M–$21.3M after Steam's cut $14.4M–$32.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Mixed
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Brick Rigs
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.2M–$22.0M after Steam's cut $14.8M–$33.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
SandboxDestruction
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.2M
5.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$123.1M–$331.0M after Steam's cut $223.8M–$509.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
401k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies

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