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How many copies did Nexomon: Extinction sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 101k–164k
$553k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nexomon: Extinction and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nexomon: Extinction's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 220k–389k
best case 1.3M (Temtem)
Games like Nexomon: Extinction

A typical game among these

≈ 220k–389k copies

≈ $2.6M–$3.6M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Temtem at ≈ 975k–1.6M copies, ≈ $12.1M–$32.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 911 to 33k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Creature Collector (8 of 8) and JRPG (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Creature Collector, priced around $45. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + Story Rich + PvE; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 187k–304k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut
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JRPGFunny
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≈ 384k–625k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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Est. copies
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1.6x vs typical
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$19.99
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Creature CollectorPixel Graphics
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Est. copies
≈ 277k–450k
SteamSpy under 20k
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$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
ControllerComedy
Temtem
2022
Est. copies
≈ 975k–1.6M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
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$44.99
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Ni no Kuni Wrath of the White Witch™ Remastered
2019
Est. copies
≈ 149k–242k
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Est. revenue
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Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster
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≈ 131k–214k
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Very Positive
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2022
Est. copies
≈ 201k–326k
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Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorExploration

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