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How many copies did Spider Queen cave sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
$27k–$72k after Steam's cut $49k–$111k before Steam's cut
from 208 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Spider Queen cave and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Spider Queen cave's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–4.8M
best case 22.4M (Tomb Raider Game of the Year)
Games like Spider Queen cave

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–4.8M copies

≈ $18.5M–$65.7M after Steam's cut

from ~49k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tomb Raider Game of the Year at ≈ 17.1M–27.8M copies, ≈ $94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (5 of 8) and Female Protagonist (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Female Protagonist + Third Person, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

UNCHARTED™: Legacy of Thieves Collection
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$15.0M–$40.4M after Steam's cut $27.3M–$62.2M before Steam's cut
$49.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction-Adventure
Mirror's Edge™
2009
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.8M after Steam's cut $24.9M–$56.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureParkour
The Witness
2016
Est. copies
≈ 900k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.9M–$26.6M after Steam's cut $18.0M–$40.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleExploration
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.6M–$79.6M after Steam's cut $53.8M–$122.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
89k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
Webbed
2021
Est. copies
≈ 380k–617k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2D PlatformerCute
Rise of the Tomb Raider™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.6M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$53.7M–$144.2M after Steam's cut $97.5M–$221.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
156k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction
Tomb Raider Game of the Year
2013
Est. copies
≈ 17.1M–27.8M
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut $171.0M–$388.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
271k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction

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