How much revenue did Blue Fire make?

$425k–$1.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Blue Fire sell?

Q: How many copies did Blue Fire sell?

77k to 126k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 77k–126k; $425k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $772k–$1.8M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Blue Fire and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Blue Fire's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 64k–330k

best case 5.9M (Celeste)

Games like Blue Fire

A typical game among these

≈ 64k–330k copies

≈ $363k–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 399 reviews in their first month; the range was 205 to 1k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Platformer (7 of 8) and Metroidvania (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + Platformer, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Female Protagonist + Great Soundtrack + Pixel Graphics; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Celeste 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.5M–7.4M 46x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	149k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Precision PlatformerDifficult
You Have to Win the Game 2014	Est. copies ≈ 321k–521k 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	6k reviews Very Positive	MetroidvaniaFree to Play
Aeterna Noctis 2021	Est. copies ≈ 54k–87k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $443k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $805k–$1.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	MetroidvaniaDifficult
VVVVVV 2010	Est. copies ≈ 667k–1.1M 3.3x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $916k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut	$4.99	11k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsPrecision Platformer
Prince of Persia The Lost Crown 2024	Est. copies ≈ 182k–295k 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.2M before Steam's cut	$29.99	7k reviews Very Positive	MetroidvaniaExploration
Bō: Path of the Teal Lotus 2024	Est. copies ≈ 43k–71k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $239k–$643k after Steam's cut $435k–$989k before Steam's cut	$19.99	2k reviews Very Positive	MetroidvaniaSide Scroller
Unbound: Worlds Apart 2021	Est. copies ≈ 33k–54k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $182k–$490k after Steam's cut $332k–$755k before Steam's cut	$19.99	1k reviews Very Positive	IndieAdventure
Leap Year 2024	Est. copies ≈ 80k–129k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $109k–$294k after Steam's cut $199k–$452k before Steam's cut	$4.99	3k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ExplorationPrecision Platformer