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How many copies did Trigon: Space Story sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 35k–57k
$194k–$522k after Steam's cut $353k–$802k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Trigon: Space Story and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Trigon: Space Story's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 19k–45k
best case 285k (Homeworld 3)
Games like Trigon: Space Story

A typical game among these

≈ 19k–45k copies

≈ $67k–$233k after Steam's cut

from ~717 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Rogue-like (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Homeworld 3 at ≈ 217k–353k copies, ≈ $3.6M–$9.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 236 reviews in their first month; the range was 58 to 6k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (4 of 8) and Sci-fi (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sci-fi + Tactical, priced around $32. The breakout hits carry Sci-fi + Tactical + Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SteamSpy 200k–500k
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≈ 27k–43k
1.5x vs typical
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Homeworld 3
2024
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≈ 217k–353k
12x vs typical
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SpaceRTS
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≈ 12k–20k
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Survivors of the Dawn
2023
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X-COM: UFO Defense
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≈ 253k–411k
5.6x vs typical
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Overwhelmingly Positive
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