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How many copies did Homeworld 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 217k–353k
$3.6M–$9.6M after Steam's cut $6.5M–$14.8M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Homeworld 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Homeworld 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–3.3M
best case 10.7M (Stellaris)
Games like Homeworld 3

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–3.3M copies

≈ $11.9M–$26.6M after Steam's cut

from ~29k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stellaris at ≈ 8.2M–13.3M copies, ≈ $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Space (7 of 8) and Simulation (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Grand Strategy, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Grand Strategy + 4X + Exploration; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SPORE™
2008
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.5M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut $46.0M–$104.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
73k reviews
Very Positive
God GameOpen World
Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
6.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.0M–$40.4M after Steam's cut $27.3M–$62.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
43k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyRTS
Surviving Mars
2018
Est. copies
≈ 889k–1.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
29k reviews
Mostly Positive
ENDLESS Space™ 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 795k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.5M after Steam's cut $15.9M–$36.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
23k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySpace
Empires of the Undergrowth
2024
Est. copies
≈ 470k–764k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.1M–$16.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion
2012
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.7M–$15.3M after Steam's cut $10.3M–$23.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
ManagementDiplomacy

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.