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How many copies did ARIA CHRONICLE sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 29k–47k
$143k–$384k after Steam's cut $260k–$591k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid ARIA CHRONICLE and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including ARIA CHRONICLE's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 149k–311k
best case 322k (TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children)
Games like ARIA CHRONICLE

A typical game among these

≈ 149k–311k copies

≈ $2.2M–$3.5M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children at ≈ 246k–399k copies, ≈ $1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 476 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Tactics (8 of 8) and JRPG (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with CRPG + Tactical RPG, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 236k–384k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
8k reviews
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MechsTactical RPG
Super Robot Wars 30
2021
Est. copies
≈ 162k–263k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.2M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$11.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
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StrategyRPG
Tactics Ogre: Reborn
2022
Est. copies
≈ 115k–187k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.5M before Steam's cut
$49.99
5k reviews
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Tactical RPGTurn-Based Tactics
Disgaea PC
2016
Est. copies
≈ 201k–326k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Strategy RPGJRPG
Disgaea 5 Complete
2018
Est. copies
≈ 109k–177k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children
2020
Est. copies
≈ 246k–399k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGTactical RPG
TRIANGLE STRATEGY
2022
Est. copies
≈ 94k–152k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$59.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
Turn-Based TacticsStrategy RPG
Banner of the Maid
2019
Est. copies
≈ 241k–391k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$16.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy

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