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How many copies did Banner of the Maid sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 241k–391k
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Banner of the Maid and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Banner of the Maid's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 226k–337k
best case 9.3M (Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition)
Games like Banner of the Maid

A typical game among these

≈ 226k–337k copies

≈ $2.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition at ≈ 7.1M–11.5M copies, ≈ $87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 10k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Tactical RPG (6 of 8) and Turn-Based Strategy (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Story Rich, priced around $47. The breakout hits carry Story Rich + Character Customization + Fantasy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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2019
Est. copies
≈ 152k–247k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$835k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
33x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut
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Est. copies
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SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkDifficult
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children
2020
Est. copies
≈ 246k–399k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGTactical RPG
SteamWorld Heist
2016
Est. copies
≈ 260k–423k
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StrategyTurn-Based
Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark
2019
Est. copies
≈ 183k–298k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
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RPGStrategy
Expeditions: Rome
2022
Est. copies
≈ 169k–274k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.6M after Steam's cut $3.8M–$8.6M before Steam's cut
$44.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
RPGStrategy
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
7.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$16.5M–$44.4M after Steam's cut $30.0M–$68.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
Character CustomizationCinematic

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