How much revenue did Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark make?

$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark sell?

Q: How many copies did Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark sell?

183k to 298k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 183k–298k; $1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut; from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 447k–499k

best case 1.3M (Battle Brothers)

Games like Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark

A typical game among these

≈ 447k–499k copies

≈ $4.9M–$7.5M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Battle Brothers at ≈ 1.0M–1.6M copies, ≈ $8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 13k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Turn-Based Strategy (7 of 8) and Turn-Based Tactics (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with CRPG + Character Customization, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Character Customization; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Gloomhaven 2021	Est. copies ≈ 400k–650k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut	$34.99	16k reviews Very Positive	Online Co-OpDark Fantasy
Wasteland 3 2020	Est. copies ≈ 557k–904k 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	22k reviews Very Positive	CRPGCharacter Customization
Battle Brothers 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.6M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	29k reviews Very Positive	StrategyRPG
Songs of Conquest 2024	Est. copies ≈ 337k–547k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.8M–$7.5M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.5M before Steam's cut	$29.99	14k reviews Very Positive	Local MultiplayerTurn-Based Tactics
Marvel's Midnight Suns 2022	Est. copies ≈ 609k–990k 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $10.0M–$27.0M after Steam's cut $18.3M–$41.6M before Steam's cut	$59.99	25k reviews Very Positive	SuperheroTurn-Based Tactics
XCOM®: Chimera Squad 2020	Est. copies ≈ 582k–947k 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	23k reviews Mostly Positive	StrategyTurn-Based Tactics
The Last Spell 2023	Est. copies ≈ 341k–555k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	14k reviews Very Positive	StrategySingleplayer
Jagged Alliance 3 2023	Est. copies ≈ 374k–608k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $4.6M–$12.4M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.1M before Steam's cut	$44.99	15k reviews Very Positive	StrategyTurn-Based Tactics