How much revenue did Wasteland 3 make?

$6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Wasteland 3 sell?

Q: How many copies did Wasteland 3 sell?

557k to 904k copies, based on its 22k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 557k–904k; $6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut; from 22k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Wasteland 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Wasteland 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 768k–3.3M

best case 28.0M (Baldur's Gate 3)

Games like Wasteland 3

A typical game among these

≈ 768k–3.3M copies

≈ $8.5M–$53.6M after Steam's cut

from ~35k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Baldur's Gate 3 at ≈ 21.3M–34.6M copies, ≈ $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the range was 6k to 268k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Character Customization (6 of 8) and CRPG (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Character Customization + Choices Matter, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Turn-Based Combat + Dungeons & Dragons + Fantasy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Baldur's Gate 3 2023	Est. copies ≈ 21.3M–34.6M 24x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $351.5M–$945.2M after Steam's cut $639.2M–$1454.1M before Steam's cut	$59.99	859k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RPGCharacter Customization
Tyranny 2016	Est. copies ≈ 560k–909k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.6M–$12.4M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	13k reviews Very Positive	RPGChoices Matter
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $16.5M–$44.4M after Steam's cut $30.0M–$68.3M before Steam's cut	$49.99	48k reviews Very Positive	Character CustomizationCinematic
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017	Est. copies ≈ 7.1M–11.5M 5.9x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut	$44.99	206k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Tactical RPGRPG
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.9M–$15.8M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	35k reviews Mostly Positive	RPGParty-Based RPG
Solasta: Crown of the Magister 2021	Est. copies ≈ 560k–910k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.6M–$12.4M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	23k reviews Very Positive	RPGCo-op Campaign
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.8M–6.2M 3.7x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut $75.8M–$172.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	132k reviews Very Positive	RPGStory Rich
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire 2018	Est. copies ≈ 611k–993k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.0M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	20k reviews Very Positive	RPGParty-Based RPG