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How many copies did Knock on the Coffin Lid sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 72k–117k
$496k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $903k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Knock on the Coffin Lid and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Knock on the Coffin Lid's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 149k–665k
best case 6.0M (Grim Dawn)
Games like Knock on the Coffin Lid

A typical game among these

≈ 149k–665k copies

≈ $637k–$7.2M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Action RPG (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Grim Dawn at ≈ 4.6M–7.4M copies, ≈ $31.4M–$84.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action RPG (3 of 8) and Dark Fantasy (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RPG + Hack and Slash, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Lords Of The Fallen™ 2014
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
5.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$9.6M–$25.9M after Steam's cut $17.5M–$39.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
21k reviews
Mixed
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Thief: Deadly Shadows
2007
Est. copies
≈ 166k–269k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$409k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $744k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
$8.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAtmospheric
Hellsplit: Arena
2019
Est. copies
≈ 114k–185k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$783k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
VRAction
Thief Gold (1999)
2012
Est. copies
≈ 266k–432k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$511k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $929k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$6.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
StealthClassic
Army of Ruin
2023
Est. copies
≈ 70k–114k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$154k–$413k after Steam's cut $279k–$635k before Steam's cut
$7.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
Grim Dawn
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
27x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$31.4M–$84.5M after Steam's cut $57.2M–$130.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
Action RPGHack and Slash
Wild Animal Racing
2016
Est. copies
≈ 113k–183k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$124k–$332k after Steam's cut $225k–$511k before Steam's cut
$3.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentCold War
Book of Demons
2018
Est. copies
≈ 287k–467k
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
9k reviews
Very Positive

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