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How many copies did Thief Gold (1999) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 266k–432k
$511k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $929k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Thief Gold (1999) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thief Gold (1999)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–4.8M
best case 20.7M (The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition)
Games like Thief Gold (1999)

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–4.8M copies

≈ $8.7M–$38.4M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is FPS (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition at ≈ 15.8M–25.6M copies, ≈ $173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (3 of 8) and Horror (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Fantasy, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.6M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$173.2M–$465.8M after Steam's cut $315.0M–$716.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Mafia III: Definitive Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.2M–$35.5M after Steam's cut $24.0M–$54.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
64k reviews
Mixed
CrimeOpen World
Deus Ex: Game of the Year Edition
2007
Est. copies
≈ 992k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$7.9M before Steam's cut
$6.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkRPG
Crysis
2008
Est. copies
≈ 848k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
Amnesia: The Dark Descent
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.4M–$33.4M after Steam's cut $22.6M–$51.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorGore
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines
2007
Est. copies
≈ 973k–1.6M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.4M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
RPGVampire
Metro 2033 Redux
2014
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–12.9M
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.8M–$117.8M after Steam's cut $79.6M–$181.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
142k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
Hitman: Blood Money
2007
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.5M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAction

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.