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How many copies did Ultimate MMA sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–9k
$9k–$23k after Steam's cut $16k–$36k before Steam's cut
from 213 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ultimate MMA and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ultimate MMA's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 70k–289k
best case 710k (Drunken Wrestlers 2)
Games like Ultimate MMA

A typical game among these

≈ 70k–289k copies

≈ $233k–$1.1M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Drunken Wrestlers 2 at ≈ 541k–879k copies, ≈ $594k–$1.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 323 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fighting (6 of 8) and Sports (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Fighting + Physics, priced around $4.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

WWE 2K22
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Est. copies
≈ 246k–400k
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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10k reviews
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SimulationSports
Hellish Quart
2021
Est. copies
≈ 212k–344k
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut
$17.99
9k reviews
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Early AccessFighting
WWE 2K17
2017
Est. copies
≈ 58k–95k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Mixed
SportsWrestling
Drunken Wrestlers 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 541k–879k
6.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$594k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$3.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessMultiplayer
WWE 2K19
2018
Est. copies
≈ 113k–184k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
SportsWrestling
Street Warriors Online
2016
Est. copies
≈ 67k–110k
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$37k–$99k after Steam's cut $67k–$153k before Steam's cut
$1.99
2k reviews
Mixed
FightingAction
Super Blood Hockey
2017
Est. copies
≈ 39k–63k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$159k–$428k after Steam's cut $289k–$658k before Steam's cut
$14.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
SportsHockey
Fight Crab
2020
Est. copies
≈ 23k–37k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$126k–$339k after Steam's cut $229k–$522k before Steam's cut
$19.99
925 reviews
Very Positive
Spectacle fighterSports

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.