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How many copies did Outside The Grid sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–9k
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
from 228 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Outside The Grid and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Outside The Grid's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 37.7M–99.7M
best case 820.1M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like Outside The Grid

A typical game among these

≈ 37.7M–99.7M copies

≈ $635.6M–$869.5M after Steam's cut

from ~1.3M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is FPS (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (4 of 8) and Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Shooter + FPS. The breakout hits carry Action + Shooter + FPS; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 624.8M–1015.3M
7.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.9M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
ELDEN RING
2022
Est. copies
≈ 28.7M–46.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut $861.1M–$1959.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
1.2M reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeOpen World
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 80.0M–130.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxModdable
Among Us
2018
Est. copies
≈ 22.8M–37.0M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut $56.8M–$129.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
749k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerSocial Deduction
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.