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How many copies did Voxelotl Garden sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 322–524
$442–$1k after Steam's cut $803–$2k before Steam's cut
from 13 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Voxelotl Garden and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Voxelotl Garden's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 455–879
best case 15k (NewCity)
Games like Voxelotl Garden

A typical game among these

≈ 455–879 copies

≈ $592–$1k after Steam's cut

from ~15 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: NewCity at ≈ 12k–19k copies, ≈ $32k–$87k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 9 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 111.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and Life Sim (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + City Builder, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Early Access + Strategy + Top-Down; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Crossroads Extreme
2019
Est. copies
≈ 346–562
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$284–$764 after Steam's cut $517–$1k before Steam's cut
$2.99
12 reviews
Mostly Positive
CasualSimulation
Latte Stand Tycoon +
2023
Est. copies
≈ 744–1k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
$6.99
30 reviews
Mixed
NewCity
2020
Est. copies
≈ 12k–19k
32x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$32k–$87k after Steam's cut $59k–$134k before Steam's cut
$9.99
475 reviews
Mixed
Shroomchitect
2023
Est. copies
≈ 347–564
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$571–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before Steam's cut
$5.99
14 reviews
Positive
SimulationRelaxing
Blox 3D World
2021
Est. copies
≈ 372–605
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$510–$1k after Steam's cut $928–$2k before Steam's cut
$4.99
15 reviews
Positive
SimulationVoxel
Far Away Horse
2022
Est. copies
≈ 595–967
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$162–$436 after Steam's cut $295–$670 before Steam's cut
$0.99
24 reviews
Positive
AdventureCasual
PIRATECRAFT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$358–$962 after Steam's cut $650–$1k before Steam's cut
$0.99
53 reviews
Mixed
ExplorationSandbox
Voxel Farm Island
2021
Est. copies
≈ 298–484
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$655–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$7.99
12 reviews
Mixed
CasualSimulation

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